One of the topics that I bring from the mountain to the business world as an ultratrail runner is decision-making. Because besides courage, endurance, and optimal resource management, it is essential for the success of individuals and companies. Especially in times of crisis! Although I have been working on a project of the nationwide hackathon since last weekend and have acquired quite extensive knowledge about the possible effects of SARS-CoV-2, I am not an expert on the virus. The examples I provide to present my decision-making concept are based on my current knowledge and experience. They are not intended to be universally applicable, but rather to offer you some food for thought.
Simple: Just do it!
Having more information usually does not make a decision better. The optimal level for making a safe decision is what matters. This question is even harder to answer in times like these. Regarding the current activism, I recommend asking yourself the following questions: What internal measures can we benefit from immediately? Which changes will make us stronger in the medium and long term, regardless of how the virus situation evolves? I am thinking, for example, of long-overdue innovations. Conversely, which measures only make sense under certain circumstances? In this case, it is right and important to estimate a direction. This is difficult considering the many unknowns. As long as you don't have to make decisions for millions of people like our government does, just keep it simple: What are the game changers in your concept? In our concept, for example, it is a market-ready vaccine against the virus. Realistically, this could be on the market in 12-16 months. This is a value we have to work with for now. There remains a feeling of uncertainty that cannot be resolved by investing more time in the search for an answer when there isn't one yet. In this case, it is best to ask yourself: Do I even need to make this decision now? What happens if I don't make it for the time being?
Beware of Thinking Errors:
"I know that I know nothing," said Cicero wisely. Even experts can only make estimations. Our global world is at least as complex as the stock market. There, it is repeatedly shown that even experts cannot predict outcomes. This is especially true in turbulent times, where every action creates a new cause and vice versa. For example, when it comes to behavioral predictions, it is not necessarily the actual situation that plays a decisive role, but rather what each of us thinks and feels. Stock values do not fall only due to poor results, but mostly initially due to bad publicity. Fear is rarely a good decision-making helper. At the very least, it is important to subject your fear to a reality check. This is how we act intelligently in terms of risk. The biggest fear when making decisions is usually the fear of making the wrong decision. The consequence: decisions are postponed or endless research is conducted, which is no longer profitable. We forget that not deciding is also a decision. To revisit the question above: What happens if I don't make this decision for the time being? Sometimes, as in our project, you realize that the consequences would be so severely damaging that you evaluate the possible negative effects of a wrong decision differently. When it comes to finances, this is called opportunity costs. They are also often overlooked unnecessarily.
Future: Always refer to the future when making decisions.
Here we are again with a thinking error. The sunk cost fallacy. We tend to value the effort already made (time, money, energy) more highly than the question: Can I still achieve my goal? Because it doesn't matter how much you have already invested. Throwing good money after bad does not make it better. This applies to all other aspects as well. It becomes difficult when unequal things are pitted against each other. In my view, health is never to be measured as a value, and if it were, it would probably rank above all. But even here, it is important to think long-term. In our case: What are the effects, for example, of the consequences of social distancing on general health and our economy in the medium and long term? We are certain that they will be enormous and depending on the duration, they will increase exponentially in some cases. That is why a team of eight dedicated individuals has come together to examine possible solutions. For days, each member of our team has been investing a tremendous amount of time and energy into a sensible strategy. The developers are also working on the simulation model that should make decisions easier for politicians and decision-makers. However, I am aware that something can change significantly and unexpectedly at any time, and holding onto our strategy would be nothing but a sunk cost fallacy. Even if it would hurt, what we have already invested does not matter. The only thing that matters then is: Can we still achieve our goal? Therefore, ALWAYS base your decision on the future.
E like Encourage:
Have the courage to make necessary decisions and encourage others to do the same. Because if you don't make a decision, someone else or life will decide for you. And we often perceive the latter as bitter afterwards. In fact, it is often the case that the more difficult a decision between multiple options is, the closer the pros and cons of each option are – at least from your perspective. Sometimes it makes sense to switch them. So, the "E" could also stand for Explore. Discover the opportunities and alternatives. What is the goal behind your goal? Maybe there is a better way. Aldi is a good example here, even though it's been a while. After researching faster scanners without success, the solution was found in printing the barcode more frequently on the items. The result in terms of checkout time (the goal behind the goal of faster scanners) was achieved.
