The Year 2036: A Glimpse into the Future
We are writing about the year 2036. Our lives and economy have changed dramatically in the past decades. Self-driving trucks dominate highways, packages are delivered by drones within minutes. 3D printing shops offer rapid production of goods on every corner. Robots welcome hotel guests, serve in restaurants, and stock shelves in supermarkets. These economic upheavals have replaced many jobs in services and production. This future scenario is described in the study "Spatial Economics" by Bain & Company.
The BANI World: Understanding Our Complex Reality
Rising Complexity and Dynamics are the New Normal
"Nothing is more constant than change." - Heraclitus
BANI is not a future topic. We have long observed that complexity and dynamics are constantly increasing in both personal and societal/economic environments. We are reachable via our smartphones almost 24/7, the business environment is more diverse, dynamic, and interconnected than ever before, and at the same time less predictable. Many societal developments cause not only fascination but also and above all unease.
What is BANI?
The BANI model (by futurist Jamais Cascio) describes our current world as complex and partly chaotic with often unpredictable effects – a world where old values and rules often no longer apply.
BANI Factors Explained
| Factor | Explanation | Examples | Approaches / Impulses |
|---|---|---|---|
| B - brittle | Risk of sudden and unpredictable failure of a seemingly stable system | Financial crash, Power grid failure, Supply chain disruption, Pandemic | Resilience, Durability, Flexibility, Adaptability, Collaboration culture |
| A - anxious | The world becomes frightening with its brittleness, leading to powerlessness and helplessness | Negative news (war, climate...), Information overflow, Decision uncertainty, Low risk tolerance | Mindfulness, Empathy, Courage and Trust, Orientation, Development of soft skills |
| N - nonlinear | No law of cause and effect; small things can have unforeseen consequences | Delayed effects, System escalation ("butterfly effect"), Feedback loops, Mutual influence of factors | Networked / systemic thinking, Pattern recognition, Context understanding, Adaptivity, Fostering creativity and innovation |
| I - incomprehensible | Human mind cannot fully grasp the complexity and dynamics of information and events | Data flood, Contradictions, Illogic | Trust in "collective intuition", Creating transparency, Use of AI / Big Data |
Top 3 Helpful Competencies for the BANI World
Perception: Sensitivity in information intake and evaluation
Resilience: Ability to deal with setbacks and maintain decision-making and action capability
Relationship skills: Collaboration becomes a crucial success factor
Metaphor Exercise: A Playful Approach to Problem-Solving
Think of a complex question or unclear situation that currently occupies you. What metaphor comes to mind? Describe it in detail, including associations and feelings. Use these descriptions for possible solution ideas, moving from the problem image to the solution image.
Example: As a leader, you can't reach an employee with your thoughts and ideas. "They're like a block of wood!" is the metaphor. This can lead to solutions like addressing their competencies and expectations, demanding less, and communicating more at eye level.
Curious for More?
To learn how to lead yourself healthily in the BANI world, develop other people and teams, or successfully shape changes, visit www.fuehrungsnavigation.de for more articles and practical impulses.
"There is nothing good unless one does it." - E. Kästner
