Making Decisions in Times of Crisis: What We Can Learn from the Mountains for Business
From Ultratrail to Business: Decision-Making as a Key to Success
One of the topics I bring from the mountains to the business world as an ultratrail runner is decision-making. Alongside courage, endurance, and an optimal use of resources, it is essential for the success of individuals and organizations – especially in times of crisis.
Although I’ve been working on a nationwide hackathon project since last weekend and have gained extensive knowledge about the possible effects of SARS CoV2, I’m not an expert on the virus. The examples I use to present my decision-making concept reflect my current knowledge and experience. Without claiming general validity, they are primarily meant to inspire your thinking.
Simple: Just Do It
More information doesn’t always lead to better decisions. But what is the right amount for a safe decision? A question that’s even harder to answer in times like these.
When it comes to the current rush for action, ask yourself these questions:
- Which internal measures offer us immediate benefits?
- What changes make us stronger in the medium and long term – regardless of how the virus evolves?
- I’m thinking of long-overdue innovations, for example.
On the flip side: Which measures only make sense under certain conditions?
In this case, it’s right and important to estimate a direction – which is difficult with
so many unknowns.
As long as you’re not making decisions for millions like a government, just ask yourself:
- What are the game changers in your concept?
In our case, it's a market-ready vaccine – realistically available in 12–16 months. That’s a value we must work with for now.
The feeling of uncertainty remains, but it cannot be resolved by endlessly searching for answers that don’t yet exist. In that case, ask yourself:
- Do I even need to make this decision now?
- What happens if I don’t make it – yet?
Beware of Thinking Errors
“I know that I know nothing,” said Cicero. Even experts can only offer estimates. Our global world is at least as complex as the stock market – where even pros often fail to predict outcomes.
This is especially true in turbulent times, where every effect creates a new cause, and vice versa.
In terms of behavioral predictions, it’s not always the actual situation that matters – but rather what each person thinks and feels. For example: Stock prices often drop not because of bad results, but due to bad publicity.
And: Fear is rarely a good decision-maker. At the very least, it must undergo a reality check – only then can we act risk-intelligently.
The biggest fear around decisions? Often the fear of making the wrong one. The result: Postponed decisions or endless research that’s no longer productive.
But remember: Not deciding is also a decision.
Revisiting the question: What happens if I don’t decide now?
Sometimes – as in our project – you realize that the consequences of inaction would be far worse, and that even the risk of a wrong decision is acceptable. In finance, we call this opportunity cost – and it’s often overlooked.
Future: Always Base Your Decisions on the Future
And here comes another classic thinking error: the sunk cost fallacy. We tend to overvalue what we’ve already invested (time, money, energy) instead of asking:
- Can I still reach my goal?
Because it doesn’t matter how much you’ve already put in. If you throw good money after bad, it doesn’t make it any better – and the same goes for any resource.
It gets tough when unequal things compete. For example, health is hardly measurable – and if it were, it would probably rank highest.
Still, even here we need to think long-term:
What are the medium- and long-term effects of social distancing on overall health and the economy?
We’re convinced the impacts will be massive – and depending on how long the situation lasts, perhaps even exponential.
That’s why we’ve formed a team of eight highly motivated people to explore possible solutions. Everyone is investing significant time and energy in developing a solid strategy. Our developers are building a simulation model to help politicians and leaders make better decisions.
Yet I’m aware: Things could change fundamentally at any time – and sticking to a strategy for the wrong reasons would then be a mistake.
Even if it hurts, only one thing matters:
- Can we still reach our goal?
Always base your decisions on the future – not on past investments.
E for Encourage
Have the courage to make necessary decisions – and encourage others to do the same. Because if you don’t decide, someone else – or life – will decide for you. And the latter often feels bitter in hindsight.
Often, the harder a decision seems, the closer the pros and cons are – at least from your perspective. In that case, try to:
- Change your perspective
- Let “E” also stand for Explore
- Discover new options and opportunities
- Ask yourself: What’s the goal behind your goal?
A famous example:
At Aldi, they struggled for a long time to develop faster barcode scanners – unsuccessfully. The real solution? Simply printing the barcode multiple times on the product.
The result? Faster checkout times – which was the real goal all along.
Conclusion: Clarity, Courage and Flexibility in Decision-Making
Especially in crisis situations, it’s more important than ever to make decisions with clarity, courage, and a future-focused mindset. Let go of fear, don’t cling to past investments, and stay flexible.
Whether in the mountains or in business – those who act with awareness, courage, and resilience are best prepared for what lies ahead.
