Dr. Helmut Becker - Hurricanes blow away electrical illusions

The future belongs to electric cars. However, it is still unclear when exactly this future will begin. Nevertheless, Tesla is riding a wave of success - and thus best demonstrates that the technology and the electric hype also bring problems with them. "Firstly, things turn out differently, and secondly, than one thinks." Wilhelm Busch hit the nail on the head with this statement. This led Friedrich Dürrenmatt, although he was never involved in the strategic planning of an automotive company, to the realization: "The more planned the actions of people, the more effectively chance can intervene." The common saying captures this wisdom: "Man proposes, God disposes!" And this seems to be happening to the German automotive industry, especially to the fervent supporters of electric cars and the declared opponents of those with combustion engines, in autumn 2017. The media, under the impression of Elon Musk's great success with his purely battery-operated electric cars (BEV) under the Tesla brand, have been hammering on them for years - accusing them of having overslept this important future technology. As if there were no sensible alternatives to electromobility in the form of clean combustion engines. Serious surveys, according to which, besides Toyota and Nissan, Daimler, BMW, and Volkswagen as well as the major suppliers Bosch and Continental hold the most patents for electromobility, while Tesla holds hardly any, were only briefly mentioned. That did not fit the prejudices! While some manufacture around 16 million cars annually, Tesla struggled to produce about 70,000 vehicles in 2016. However, in 2018, this number is expected to reach 500,000, and even a million by 2020. Instead of the planned 5000, only 265 units of the new Model 3 were delivered. The divide between wish and reality cannot be greater than with Musk. And then, in August/September, the unexpected happened. Just as the German automotive industry was preparing to declare the era of electromobility at the 67th IAA and launch an offensive for emission-free cars with over 150 models - not yet on stage but planned for the coming years - the hurricane season began in the Caribbean and the southern United States. This time, worse and more intense than usual. "Irma," "Harvey," "Maria," and "Nate" brought death and devastation to many well-known Caribbean islands and the southern states of the USA. The images of the destructive force of these natural disasters were broadcasted on TV screens worldwide. Tens of thousands of people in the southern United States were urged to flee inland and seek safety. Endless lines of cars and hopelessly congested highways dominated the screens.

"Gone with the wind"

Even worse was the shock that over six million residents in Florida alone had to live without electricity, even for weeks. And this happened in the high-tech country of the USA, which is aiming to terrify the old automotive world of combustion engine cars with autonomous electric cars from California. However, the abrupt paralysis of the US rural power grids does not seem to have happened after these events. On the contrary! Those who were able to flee inland with their fully fueled pick-up trucks, additionally equipped with reserve canisters, were considered lucky. They passed by fellow citizens whose Teslas or other electric cars were stranded on the roadside without power and without a chance of - if at all - timely recharging. The subsequent surge in sales of new combustion engine pick-up trucks in September as replacements for the storm-damaged cars speaks volumes about the preference structure based on the storm-battered experiences of US new car buyers. The electric illusion: "Gone with the wind!" And "Irma" and company have taught US drivers another lesson: what the autumnal tropical hurricanes do to the US power supply in the south, the winter blizzards do in the north. The result is always the same: power supply collapses, electric cars come to a halt - also for physical reasons.

Tesla "in production hell"

Unlike with combustion engine cars, there is no sign of a surge in sales for Tesla and others in the post-hurricane era. On the contrary, Tesla founder Musk is struggling to ramp up production of his highly acclaimed Model 3. He admitted that he is currently "in production hell." This does not surprise genuine and experienced experts in the field. What surprises logically thinking contemporaries is Musk's statement that, after the devastating hurricane "Maria," Tesla is now focusing entirely on producing batteries for the distressed population in Puerto Rico to restore their power supply, instead of focusing on the production of its Model 3. Just as in Germany in the 1980s when the Greens emerged, the saying went that nuclear power was unnecessary, electricity came from the socket, and personal cars were obsolete because people hitchhiked - now, according to Musk, electricity comes from the battery. A wonderful world!

When many do the same

Another illusion regarding the beneficial effects of electromobility was shattered in the autumn: that it is infinitely expandable without harmful side effects. What macroeconomists are taught from the beginning is the paradox that when one person drives an electric car, it is not a problem. However, when many do the same, new problems arise. Example Oslo: Thanks to a variety of financial and non-financial incentives, Norway and Oslo have become global role models for electromobility. The share of electric cars in the vehicle fleet averages 30% in the country and almost 50% in Oslo itself. Suddenly, the "Süddeutsche Zeitung" wrote: "Electric cars are too popular in Norway!" and the "Spiegel" announced that Oslo was overwhelmed by its electric car boom. What happened? The Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association - it really exists - urgently advised all prospective car buyers to only buy a (discounted) electric car if they have their own charging point at home or at work. There are too few charging stations, and the expansion is not keeping up with new registrations. Furthermore, the privilege of electric cars to use the bus lane in traffic jams has led to traffic jams there as well, preventing buses from moving. The tension in city traffic has increased, not decreased, because now even public transport does not provide relief. All of this was foreseeable.