In her latest book "The Invisible War," Yvonne Hofstetter weighs digitalization against foreign policy.
Background: The networking leading to the "Internet of Everything" makes the network increasingly valuable. This applies not only financially - politically and militarily, the network, and digital technologies have long since moved to the center of events. More and more governments are using digitalization for political influence on other states or for military attacks. Thesis: Digitalization shifts the strategic balance of power among states. Weak states and even non-state actors gain power and opportunities for international influence, and can successfully attack technologically advanced nations with high destructive power at low costs. A commercial drone is cheaper than a fighter jet, and influencing voters through social media is more effective than a leaflet campaign. The traditional threshold for war, which requires an armed attack, is lowering. At the same time, victim states are increasingly struggling to defend themselves. Because digitalization allows for anonymity, an attack cannot always be traced back to the perpetrator, raising the question of who to defend against. Hofstetter writes: "[...] cyberspace, which brings together states, non-state actors, and (intelligent) machines in a single, new ecosystem, is a substitute for war itself." "A second strike without validated attribution hangs the sword of potential war crime." "The international community [has] not yet created a conceptual clarity... that allows for a clear response to the new threats." Current example: On September 14, 2019, the world witnessed a devastating attack on Saudi oil facilities by unmanned drones. The heavily armed Saudi Arabia experienced the failure of its air defense, which did not detect the new threat from the air. This is one problem that new technologies bring: the destabilization of the strategic balance, shifting from defense to offense. The second problem: If the attacker is unknown, defense becomes difficult. While Yemeni Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for the attack and Iran denied any involvement, the USA, on the other hand, identified Iran as the culprit. Conclusion: Smaller states, which have so far only played a subordinate role alongside the circle of great powers, G7, or G20 states, can now dominate in certain areas due to digitalization. The increasing interconnectedness empowers more and more actors, providing them with effective means of power and violence. It is inevitable that digitalization will fundamentally change the geostrategic power relations, as was already observed during the first industrial revolution. For more information: Yvonne Hofstetter. (2019). The Invisible War. Munich: Droemer-Knaur (Release date October 3, 2019).
